What Is the Options Expected Move?
The options expected move is the price range that the options market implies a stock will trade within by a specific expiration date. It is one of the most practical tools available to options traders, especially around earnings announcements and major catalysts. Rather than relying on abstract implied volatility percentages, the expected move translates market pricing into concrete dollar amounts and price levels you can act on.
The calculation is straightforward: take the at-the-money (ATM) straddle price — the combined premium of the ATM call and ATM put for a given expiration — and multiply by 0.85. This gives you an approximation of the one-standard-deviation expected move. Statistically, the stock has roughly a 68% probability of staying within this range by expiration.
How to Use This Expected Move Calculator
- 1
Enter a Ticker Symbol
Type any US-listed stock or ETF ticker (e.g., AAPL, SPY, TSLA) and click Calculate. The tool fetches live option chain data and the current stock price automatically.
- 2
Select an Expiration Date
The calculator defaults to the nearest expiration. Use the dropdown to switch to weekly, monthly, or any other available expiration cycle to see how the expected move changes over time.
- 3
Read the Expected Move
The result shows the expected move in both dollar and percentage terms, along with the expected high and low price levels. The visual price range bar makes it easy to see the implied range at a glance.
- 4
Plan Your Trade
Use the expected range to set strike prices for credit spreads, iron condors, or strangles. Compare the expected move to your own directional view to decide whether to buy or sell volatility.
Why Use the Expected Move?
Earnings Preparation
Know exactly what the market is pricing in before earnings. Compare the expected move to historical earnings moves to find edge.
Strike Selection
Place short strikes outside the expected range for credit spreads and iron condors with a statistical edge in your favor.
Risk Management
Set stop-loss and take-profit levels based on the market's own expectation of how far the stock can move.
Volatility Assessment
Compare the implied expected move to historical realized moves to determine if options are cheap or expensive.
Event Planning
Plan trades around FDA decisions, product launches, and macro events by knowing the market's priced-in range.
Position Sizing
Size your positions appropriately by understanding the magnitude of the move the market expects.
Disclaimer: This tool is for educational and informational purposes only. The expected move is a statistical estimate based on current option pricing and does not guarantee where the stock price will be at expiration. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.